Already the pundits, political experts and commentators have written off Carl Paladino as a serious gubernatorial candidate.

In today's political environment, that's a mistake. While it's true that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is the frontrunner and likely winner of the New York gubernatorial race (the Democrat leads by 58% to 29% in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll), there is reason to believe that Paladino could make this a somewhat closer election than the political elites expect.

Here's why:

The Tea Party movement, which propelled Paladino's primary victory, is real and vastly underrated as an electoral force. That's just as true in New York as it is around the country. And the Tea Party effort that won Paladino the nomination was much less about him than it was a rejection of the status quo.

It's true that the Empire State is deep blue politically, and that only 16% of New York voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement.

But there are millions of disaffected Republicans, independents and Democrats in this state. And New York voters are evenly divided as to whether the Tea Party is good or bad for America.

Two-thirds (68%) of the state's voters say that it would be better for the state to have most incumbent state legislators voted out of office; that means we can expect some surprises in November.

Roughly half (52%) of New York voters say that neither the Democratic nor the Republican party leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today.

Just 27% say their own representative in Congress is the best possible person for the job. And only 28% of voters in the Empire State feel that most members of Congress care what their constituents think.

An overwhelming 70% of New York voters believe that the primary purpose of Town Hall meetings is for members of Congress to listen rather than speak.

These figures make it clear why Paladino's overwhelming victory in the primary against former Congressman Rick Lazio should not be considered too much of a surprise.

It's the same "Mad as Hell" response we've seen all across the country. (Yes, that's a plug for my new book about the Tea Party movement, penned with Doug Schoen). While the political elites have dismissed the movement, several Tea Party candidates are poised to enter the U.S. Senate next year.

Paladino has fashioned his campaign around the movement's core themes of anger, reform and anti-incumbency. He rails against government excess and literally says he is "mad as hell."

Those themes will tap into a well of anger and frustration that is built on, but goes well beyond, what the Tea Party stands for.