Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Link to article:   http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 45% while President Obama earns 44%. This is the first time in any poll that Santorum has led the president. Several other GOP challengers have led the president a single time in the polls including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Each man briefly held the lead while they were surging in the polls, only to fall quickly. It remains to be seen what will happen to Santorum’s support.

Santorum gets 78% of the Republican vote and leads by ten among those not affiliated with either major party. President Obama get 83% of the Democratic vote in that matchup. Santorum leads by 16 points among men but trails by 12 among women. As is typically the case in all matchups, the president leads among those under 40 while the GOP hopeful leads among those who are over 40.

Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”  Scott Rasmussen’s new book came out this week and you can order it today: The People's Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt.   Scott shows how politicians created the budget crisis by pursuing their own agenda and ignoring voters.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve.

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.  Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove. When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis. The president’s ratings for the full month of January were his best in seven months. 

Scott Rasmussen’s weekly syndicated column looks at whether the trends are Obama’s friend.

Only one GOP candidate has led the president in more than one poll and that’s former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. At the moment, however, he is behind. The latest daily numbers show President Obama at 47% and Romney at 43% (see tracking history). These matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Romney leads upcoming primaries in both Michigan  and Arizona. 

Matchups for other Republican contenders are updated weekly on a rotating basis. The latest numbers show Congressman Ron Paul trails 45% to 42%. However, if former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee, the president holds an eight point lead, 49% to 41% (see tracking history).   

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported this week that the federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2012. That number is troubling enough but the reality is much worse. The United States will actually go about $4 trillion further in debt during the year.

As the Republican primary season has unfolded, the number of Americans who call themselves Democrats has fallen to a record low.  Now, 35.9% of Americans consider themselves Republicans while 32.5% are Democrats. Just a couple of months ago, there were slightly more Democrats than Republicans.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters regard labor unions as bad for business, while 31% say they’re good for business.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) now believe the country is heading in the right direction. That’s the most positive assessment since May of last year.

If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. You can also follow Scott on Facebook.  The Wall Street Journal  has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster” and The Washington Post   says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”

Scott’s earlier book, In Search of Self-Governance , dissects the issues brought about by an “unholy alliance” between government and big business.     The author notes, “Self-governance is about far more than politics and government. It requires a lot of the American people, and it has nothing to do with the petty partisan games played by Republicans and Democrats. Unfortunately, even after more than 200 years of success, there is an urgent need to defend this most basic of American values.”

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It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 34.7% Republicans, 33.6% Democrats, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers.